President Bush's portentous phrase intoned this summer past may turn out to be an iconic pain in the *** as it becomes increasingly clear what the potential time-scales, costs and difficulties of withdrawal for America and its allies could be. The difficulties are political, military, economic, logistic and diplomatic. Politically, they must leave behind a government with support from all the major factions in the country. Militarily, they must leave behind military and policing forces capable of dealing effectively with the threat of native rogue militia and imported Islamic terrorists. Economically, they must leave behind a country whose infrastructure has been restored as efficiently and effectively as it was destroyed. Logistically, they have the ongoing headache of refreshing troop strength and maintaining military supplies lines in the face of ongoing insurgency while gradually peeling back from the frontline to allow Iraqi forces to take their place yet still 'hand hold' where necessary and respond effectively to serious incidents. Finally, diplomatically, they have the burden of convincing the rest of the world they are doing the right thing and keeping allies on board in face of very direct threats to the lives of their citizens. The apparent lack of a detailed withdrawal plan over and above the phrase quoted above is worrying for Americans, worrying for their allies, worrying for the Iraqis and probably worrying the Bush administration as well. The recent swell in pro-withdrawal support and reports of poor troop morale do not augur well for an administration which wants to end on a high note. More concerning is the seeming lack of contingency planning. What if it is not possible to stand down? What of Iran? What if Saturday's vote on the constitution proves to be an exercise in non- participation or even rejection by the Sunni, raising the possibility of civil war? Equally confusing is the British response. Prime Minister Tony Blair told the Iraqi President British troops will stay "as long as he wants them" and Britain will not be intimidated by Iran. While Foreign Secretary Jack Straw argued against setting a date for withdrawal yet stated that he hoped the troops' task would be completed "within a very limited number of years". He also ruled out as "inconceivable" military action against Iran. Also, while it is unlikely that Britain would withdraw unilaterally, the same cannot be said for other allies who can, have and probably will do so again. One suspects all parties of playing a game of 'suck it and see' and, in particular, that Bush and Blair are hoping for a soft center. Finally, above everything, Vietnam, that grim ghost of America's Christmas Past, reaches out to choke the life out of any meaningful internal political dialogue or foreign diplomatic effort - especially since Vietnam saw precisely the kind of long drawn out struggle being predicted by the pessimists followed by an equal and embarrassingly swift, politically destructive withdrawal. The conclusion is not yet. |
